Fact-check based on information available as of September 15, 2026
Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, has once again issued a strong warning about the global financial system. In a post on X on September 15, 2026, Kiyosaki said that “the biggest crash in history has started.” Reports about his statement say he pointed to developments in Japan and Europe and cited several factors, including the rapid expansion of artificial-intelligence investment, the Iran conflict, high levels of debt and the retirement of the Baby Boomer generation.
However, an important distinction must be made: Kiyosaki’s statement is a personal economic prediction, not an official forecast from a central bank, government or international financial institution. Therefore, the claim that the “biggest crash in history” has already begun should not be presented as an established economic fact.
What Is Behind Kiyosaki’s Warning?
Kiyosaki has for years warned about excessive debt, asset valuations and vulnerabilities within the financial system. His latest warning brings together several issues that are independently being monitored by major economic and financial institutions.
The first is the rapid expansion of artificial-intelligence investment. The second is geopolitical instability and the economic consequences of the Iran conflict. The third is the rising level of U.S. government debt. The fourth is demographic change, particularly the retirement of the large Baby Boomer generation.
These issues are real. The question, however, is whether they are sufficient evidence that the world has entered the largest financial crash in history. Current official data do not establish such a conclusion.
AI Investment: A Genuine Financial-Stability Risk
Artificial intelligence has become one of the most important investment themes in the global economy. At the same time, the rapid expansion of AI-related investment has created concerns about valuations, financing and the ability of companies to generate sufficient returns from enormous capital expenditures.
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s May 2026 Financial Stability Report specifically identified AI-related risks among the issues being monitored by financial-market participants. Its survey found concerns about AI-related equity valuations, debt-financed capital spending and possible labor-market effects. The report also noted that a potential correction in risk assets could be triggered by concerns about AI valuations.
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook also discussed AI-related financial risks in May 2026. She noted that companies are increasingly using debt to finance AI infrastructure and that excessive leverage associated with a sustained investment boom could eventually become a financial-stability concern. At the same time, she observed that even ambitious projections would not necessarily take leverage back to the levels seen before the Global Financial Crisis.
Therefore, AI-related financial risk is real, but it does not prove that a historic market crash has already begun.
U.S. Debt Is a Serious Long-Term Vulnerability
Kiyosaki’s concerns about debt are also supported by official projections.
According to the U.S. Congressional Budget Office’s February 2026 Budget and Economic Outlook, the federal budget deficit is projected to reach approximately $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2026. Federal debt held by the public is projected at about 101% of GDP in 2026 and is expected to rise to approximately 120% of GDP by 2036 under the assumptions of the CBO’s baseline projections.
The CBO also projects that net interest costs will rise substantially over the coming decade. Such debt dynamics can reduce fiscal flexibility and make an economy more sensitive to higher interest rates or weaker economic growth.
Nevertheless, high government debt should be described as a significant fiscal vulnerability, rather than automatic evidence of an imminent global financial collapse.
Iran Conflict and Energy Risks
Geopolitical tensions represent another area where Kiyosaki’s concerns overlap with risks identified by official institutions.
The Federal Reserve’s May 2026 Financial Stability Report said geopolitical risks and an oil shock were among the most frequently cited potential threats by financial-market contacts. The report noted that a prolonged Middle East conflict could disrupt commodity supplies, increase inflationary pressure and contribute to slower economic growth. It also warned that higher energy prices could create pressure for tighter monetary policy and increase financial-market volatility.
The Federal Reserve also reported that the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict produced significant volatility in energy markets, particularly crude oil and European natural gas.
The International Monetary Fund’s July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update similarly identified renewed conflict and financial-market repricing as downside risks. However, the IMF continued to project global growth of 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027.
That is an important point: the IMF is warning about serious downside risks, but its baseline outlook is continued global economic growth rather than a worldwide economic collapse.
Baby Boomers and the Retirement Challenge
Another issue mentioned by Kiyosaki is the retirement of the Baby Boomer generation, which is contributing to major demographic and fiscal changes in the United States.
The financial pressure associated with population aging is particularly visible in Social Security. According to the official 2026 Social Security Trustees Report, the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund is projected to have sufficient reserves to pay scheduled benefits in full until the fourth quarter of 2032. After reserves are depleted, continuing income would be sufficient to pay approximately 78% of scheduled OASI benefits, assuming no legislative changes.
This represents a substantial long-term policy challenge. However, demographic pressure on Social Security should not automatically be interpreted as proof of an imminent stock-market crash.
So, Has the “Biggest Crash in History” Actually Started?
Based on the available official evidence, there is not enough evidence to state this as a fact.
Several risks highlighted by Kiyosaki are genuine. AI valuations and debt-financed investment are being monitored by the Federal Reserve. Geopolitical tensions and energy disruptions are recognized financial-stability risks. U.S. government debt is projected to rise significantly. Population aging is placing increasing pressure on Social Security and other public programs.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s May 2026 assessment said the U.S. banking system remained sound and resilient overall, with historically high regulatory capital ratios, while funding risks were generally moderate.
The IMF also continues to forecast positive global economic growth for 2026 and 2027.
Robert Kiyosaki’s warning should therefore be understood as a high-profile investor’s bearish forecast rather than an officially confirmed declaration of a global financial crash.
The economic risks he identifies should not be dismissed: excessive debt, elevated asset valuations, AI-related investment risks, geopolitical conflict, energy shocks and demographic changes can all create financial and economic stress. Official institutions are actively monitoring many of these same vulnerabilities.
However, the available evidence does not establish that the world has entered the “biggest crash in history.” A more accurate and legally safer way to report the development is:
Robert Kiyosaki warns that the biggest market crash in history has begun, citing AI, debt, geopolitical tensions and demographic pressures.
This wording clearly distinguishes Kiyosaki’s claim from independently verified economic facts and avoids presenting a prediction as a confirmed event.
Editorial note: This article is an informational fact-check based on public statements and official economic reports available as of September 15, 2026. It is not investment advice and does not predict future market movements.
Social Plugin